Saturday, September 20, 2014

Confidence is increasing this morning for a potentially significant rainfall event this weekend across NW Oregon and SW Washington. A strong September jet stream will consolidate across the Pacific Ocean and aim its energy at the Pacific Northwest beginning Friday night and lasting through the weekend. This is fairly significant by September standards and would be something we would expect to see later in the fall or winter months. The most significant of these systems will arrive Saturday night. Remnants of a tropical typhoon will be entrained into the jet stream which will help add to the precipitation rates across the region. Latest model data out this morning shows the continued trend for potentially significant rainfall amounts across the central and northern Oregon coast, the coast range mountains, the northern Oregon Cascades and interior valley locations of NW Oregon and SW Washington as the system stalls over these areas Saturday night. If model trend data verifies, there is the potential for 72 hour rainfall amounts to exceed 6" in the mountains and nearing 3" in the valleys come Monday morning. This comes on the heels of a very wet September already. The Portland International Airport has received 2.24" of rainfall to date which is more than 1" above average for September. The wettest September on record at the airport was in 1986 when 4.30" of precipitation fell. Period of record is 1940-Current. If model forecasts are correct, Portland may challenge the top spot by the end of the month which is Monday. The focus of this weekends system will be rainfall, and lots of it

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